New research reveals declining cooling benefits of global forestation under rising CO₂
A new scientific publication co-authored by researchers connected to CONCERTO, titled “Diminished biophysical cooling benefits of global forestation under rising atmospheric CO₂” (published in Nature Communications), provides important insights into how forestation’s climate regulation potential may change in the future.
Forestation has long been recognised as a key nature-based solution for mitigating global warming through carbon sequestration. However, this new study highlights that its biophysical benefits: those linked to surface energy balance and local climate regulation, may weaken as atmospheric CO₂ concentrations increase. Using a land–atmosphere coupled model with a slab ocean module, the authors examined how large-scale forestation affects near-surface air temperature under current and elevated CO₂ scenarios.
The findings show that while full-potential forestation could currently reduce global land surface temperature by around 0.062°C, this cooling effect declines significantly under higher CO₂ levels. The study attributes this reduction mainly to shifts in large-scale atmospheric circulation and weakened temperature advection in the Northern Hemisphere, rather than to local changes in evaporation or rainfall.
This research underscores the complexity of forest–climate interactions and the importance of integrating both biochemical and biophysical processes in global climate strategies. It also aligns closely with CONCERTO’s objectives to advance scientific understanding of nature-based climate solutions and their dynamic responses under changing environmental conditions. By highlighting the need for adaptive, region-specific forest management, the study contributes valuable knowledge to the ongoing effort of optimising forestation as a sustainable climate mitigation pathway.
The publication, authored by Fei Kan, Hao Xu, Shuchang Tang, Josep Peñuelas, Xu Lian, Caspar T. J. Roebroek, Nazhakaiti Anniwaer, Kai Wang, and Shilong Piao.